Dr. Z's Forecast

The first thing the Falcons will notice will be that they're playing on the worst surface in the NFL . If they can put that aside, they'll be O.K. But every time Michael Vick is chased out of the pocket, and he will be on many plays against Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Johnson 's exotic blitz package, he'll have to be on the lookout for seams and bumps and things that might trip him up. It's not a happy prospect.

Atlanta put up a solid defensive effort against a disheartened and undermanned Green Bay offense, but I don't think the Falcons will hold Philadelphia in check if quarterback Donovan McNabb is halfway functional. The Falcons ' best chance will be to work the clock, and I think they'll come out trying to run counters and misdirection stuff, as the Giants did so effectively while running for 213 yards against Philly in the regular-season finale.

The Falcons have an interesting and often surprising offensive package. I see them picking up decent yardage on the ground and staying close. If they can force a couple of turnovers, they've got a shot.

The Pick: Eagles 24, Falcons 22