Mad Dash To The Finish

On Labor day 17 major league teams were either leading their divisions or were no more than four games out of a spot in the postseason. According to the Elias Sports Bureau you have to go back to 1995—the first year of the wild-card era—to find a Sept. I when there were more contenders.

In the National League , there was order and chaos. Two races were all but clinched: The Atlanta Braves led the NL East by 13 games; the San Francisco Giants led the West by 11�. But with the Central Division and wild-card races wide open, eight NL teams, separated by no more than four games, were scrambling for the remaining two slots.

NL Central
The Chicago Cubs , with the easiest schedule, would have the inside track if righthander Kerry Wood could regain top form after having been bothered by a strained back. The Houston Astros haven't been the same since ace righty Roy Oswalt went down in July with a groin injury. The St. Louis Cardinals have a lineup chock-full of premier players in their prime, got a boost from the return of ace Matt Morris and have another righty who loves big games in Woody Williams . Best of all, the Cards, who had 14 games remaining with the Cubs and the Astros , don't need help. A winning record in those games will give St. Louis the division.

NL Wild Card

Among the contenders, the Montreal Expos , with the worst road record (25-45) and worst schedule, are a long shot. On paper the Philadelphia Phillies are the best of this bunch, but they've been hurt by poor situational hitting and the heavy hand of manager Larry Bowa . The Florida Marlins are loaded with attitude, especially with righthander Carl Pavano blossoming, but they suffered a devastating blow when slugging third baseman Mike Lowell was lost for the season. Now that aces Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling are back from the disabled list, you can't count the Arizona Diamondbacks out. Likewise, the pitching-rich Los Angeles Dodgers remain a threat, assuming their anemic offense can scratch out a lead for closer Eric Gagne to hold. Don't expect this wild ride to end, however, without at least one extra game. The Cubs are the only team among the eight potential wildcard contenders with a winning road record (36-32), and they have the best pitcher in baseball right now, righthander Mark Prior . Chicago wins a tiebreaker.

In the American League , the New York Yankees held a 4� game lead over the Boston Red Sox in the East. In the Central, the Minnesota Twins , the Chicago White Sox and the Kansas City Royals were separated by two games, with the losers unlikely to qualify for the wild card—leaving three teams ( Boston , the Oakland As and the Seattle Mariners ) battling for two remaining playoff slots.

AL Central
As gritty as the Royals have been, it's difficult to believe they can win the division while being outscored by 23 runs. The White Sox are a brutal road team (30-41) with a killer schedule (22 games left against winning teams). That leaves the door open for the Twins, an underachieving club all season but one that can take advantage of a soft schedule. They have seven games left with the White Sox , but the rest are against teams with losing records. Give Minnesota the edge, especially with lefty Johan Santana (5-0, 1.07 ERA in August) leading the staff.

AL West
The division will likely be decided by the six games between Seattle and Oakland on Sept. 19-21 at Network Associates Coliseum and on Sept. 26-28 at Safeco Field . Both play cupcake schedules outside of those head-to-head matchups. The As would get the edge if their Big Three starters were healthy, but ace lefthander Mark Mulder is out for the regular season with a fractured hip, leaving lefty Barry Zito and righthander Tim Hudson to carry an offensively challenged lineup. The Mariners are better balanced, and assuming their starting pitchers emerge from an August funk, they should win the division.

AL Wild Card
The Red Sox face a more difficult schedule than Seattle or Oakland ; they play eight games against the Yankees and the White Sox . And they've been a so-so team on the road (33-34). Oakland should take advantage of its schedule and its recent history as a strong finisher to edge the Red Sox .