Dr. Z's Forecast

The oddsmakers' two AFC preseason favorites to reach the Super Bowl are in trouble. We can forget about the Raiders, but there's still some hope left for the Dolphins, provided they fix things in a hurry.

Sunday's loss to the Colts left some nagging questions: Why did Ricky Williams carry the ball only twice in the second half? Is Brian Griese really the answer at quarterback? Or would it be better to have an escape artist like Jay Fiedler, who might not deliver as pretty a ball as Griese does but also won't get sacked five times, as Griese did against Indianapolis?

Also, why didn't Miami give rookie left tackle Wade Smith any help with defensive end Dwight Freeney, a speed rusher who comes around the corner quicker than a heartbeat? Freeney set up the Colts' first score with a sack that caused a fumble, and he shut down the Dolphins' final chance for a win with another sack and fumble deep in Indy territory.

There's one more concern, and it's a big one: A Miami defense that usually can be counted on to keep things under control, a unit loaded with Pro Bowl players, gave up scoring drives of 65, 72, 74 and 91 yards to the Colts.

O.K., Indianapolis has one of the most talented offenses in the league. But this weekend Miami faces another daunting opponent, Tennessee, which has scored 30 or more points in each of its last five games and averaged 411 yards in its last four. It's a toss-up whether Peyton Manning, who gave the Dolphins such a hard time last week, or the Titans' Steve McNair is the AFC's best quarterback. Manning does it with his arm and his brain; McNair adds the dimension of his running. Plus, Tennessee is coming into the game rested after a bye week.

Miami's at a crossroads. If the Dolphins can spring an upset, they'll be 6-3 and back on track with a wild-card edge on the Titans. A loss and they'll be just another scrambling 5-4 team, chasing the Patriots in the AFC East race and none too certain as a wild card. Historically, Miami has an edge, having beaten Tennessee five straight times, but that's the only edge I can give the Dolphins. The Titans win it.

It seems as if the Jets play the Raiders on the West Coast every year. Over the past four seasons New York has traveled to Oakland six times, losing five, including a pair of playoff games. But in all the years of this great rivalry, going back to Heidi and Ben Davidson and Joe Namath, the Jets never have been favored in Raiderland. Now they are. At 2-6 New York is in trouble, but 2-6 Oakland is in worse shape. The Jets are the pick in a wild one.

It's an odd-numbered game for Tampa Bay (4-4), which means it's the Bucs' week to win. They lose the even-numbered games, though there was nothing odder than their overtime loss to the Panthers in Week 2, when Carolina blocked three kicks. Tampa Bay's defense remains banged up, but I just can't see this team losing if it's sufficiently aroused. The Bucs are the pick.

The Texans are coming off one of their typical shocking victories, while the Bengals are coming off a nasty loss to the Cardinals. Naturally I favor the angry team, which is Cincinnati. Dallas-Washington was one of those games that was an embarrassment to both organizations, and from it comes a Cowboys victory over Buffalo, as a measure of atonement, and a Redskins loss to the Seahawks, just to show that the Dallas game was no fluke. The Packers keep it going against the Eagles in the Monday nighter, and in an intriguing Sunday-night game, matching the Super Bowl winners of 2000 and '01, the Rams and their high-powered offense will prevail on their home turf against the still formidable Ravens' defense.