When To Pitch To Barry

The chart below examines the relative merits of pitching to and walking Barry Bonds , given all combinations of outs and base runners possible when he comes to bat. the figures are the number of runs that the Giants would be expected to score for the remainder of an inning in which a team either pitches to Bonds (P) or walks him (W). The correct option is usually the one with the lower run expectancy, but because there are factors not included, such as score differential, certain situations are too close to call. The numbers were derived from a model that plays out the balance of an inning after Bonds bats, using projected stats. Two lineups were used: the Giants ' regular lineup and one with two free agents that they could have signed this winter. Two conclusions can be drawn. I) Teams are walking Bonds too frequently, and 2) placing better hitters behind him would eliminate all situations in which it would clearly be better to walk him.

[This article contains a table. Please see hardcopy of magazine or PDF.]