Tom Verducci's View

WINNERS		LOSERS
TEAM, YEAR	DIFF.	TEAM, YEAR	DIFF.
Orioles, 1992	+.135	Astros, 2000	-.155
Indians, 1994	+.115	Rangers, 1994	-.075
Rockies, 1995	+.082	Reds, 2003	-.055

A STAFF IN DECLINE

In addition to losing shortstop Miguel Tejada to free agency, the Athletics took other key—if less publicized—hits last winter when they let pitching coach Rick Peterson take the same position with the Mets and traded catcher Ramon Hernandez to the Padres for outfielder Mark Kotsay. Without Peterson and Hernandez the A's don't have superior pitching, and without superior pitching they are a mediocre club.

"They are much more predictable in their [pitching] patterns," says one American League player. "They took away the guy who developed the system and the top professor."

At week's end Oakland's ERA had climbed from 3.63 last year to 4.33 this season (the Mets' had dropped from 4.48 to 3.72), and the staff was yielding home runs at a rate 23% greater than last year's. Lefthander Barry Zito, who had never given up more than two homers in a start before this season, served up four dingers against the Yankees on April 29. A week later, also against the Yankees, manager Ken Macha allowed 22-year-old righthander Rich Harden to throw an eyebrow-raising 121 pitches.

The A's have been a strong second-half club. But with a soft-tossing bullpen that can't get strikeouts, an unsteady closer ( Arthur Rhodes) and the brain drain created by the departures of Peterson and Hernandez, Oakland will be hard-pressed to get to the postseason for a fifth straight season.

HIGH-FLYING ANGELS

Anaheim has established itself as the team to beat in the American League West, a club capable of winning the division by as many as 10 games. What about its so-so starting pitching? Doesn't matter.

"They're exactly like the 1995 Indians," one AL scout says. "They have a power bullpen that strikes people out, and they wear you out with their offense." The Angels, led by rightfielder Vladimir Guerrero, ranked third in the AL in runs (185) and were on pace to score 937, which would shatter the team record of 866 in 1979.

DEBUNKING THE NEW-PARK MYTH

Every club that opens a new ballpark likes to cite the Jake Effect, in which a team is bound to play better in a new home with bigger crowds and more financial resources. In strike-shortened 1994, their first year at Jacobs Field, the Indians improved their winning percentage from .469 in '93 to .584. The Padres ( Petco Park) and the Phillies ( Citizens Bank Park), who opened new stadiums this spring, should know that such improvement is no longer the rule.