Baseball

BITTER HARVEST
Which teams have the best farm systems? Here s a breakdown, through May 15, of where the players on major league rosters (including the DL) were developed and how many of them have remained with their original clubs.
	PLAYERS DEVELOPED	PLAYERS WITH ORIGNAL CLUB
NATIONAL
Mets	39	13
Phillies	35	12
Pirates	34	8
Dodgers	33	11
Reds	30	11
Cardinals	29	11
Braves	25	13
Cubs	23	10
Giants	22	7
Padres	21	8
Expos	20	9
Astros	13	8
AMERICAN
Red Sox	31	13
Rangers	29	9
Yankees	28	4
Royals	27	13
Mariners	25	15
Angels	24	12
Brewers	22	17
Blue Jays	12	14
Athletics	22	8
Indians	21	7
Tigers	20	6
Orioles	19	10
Twins	19	8
White Sox	17	6

DRAFT TALK

As Hank Hersch reports on page 54, the Orioles are expected to make LSU ace Ben McDonald the first pick in the June 5 draft. However, most of the top 30 prospects this year are high school players, including power hitters Tyler Houston of Las Vegas and Earl Cunningham of Lancaster, S.C., which should make the draft even riskier than usual.

"They call it a crapshoot," says Seattle general manager Woody Woodward, "but it's what makes or breaks franchises in the long run." Imagine if Toronto had selected Dwight Gooden instead of Augie Schmidt in 1982, or if the Mets had been able to sign their No. 12 pick, Roger Clemens, in '81.

Remember Jeff King, Shawn Abner, Al Chambers, Steve Chilcott or Danny Goodwin? They were first picks overall. In fact, Goodwin was selected No. 1 twice: in 1971 by the White Sox and four years later by the Angels. On the other hand, Jose Canseco wasn't picked until the 15th round; Kent Hrbek and Orel Hershiser, the 17th; Don Mattingly and Bret Saberhagen, the 19th; and Keith Hernandez, the 42nd. And some prominent players, such as Claudell Washington, Dan Quisenberry, Jeffrey Leonard, Tom Herr, Brian Downing and Ron Kittle, were never drafted.

Only 55% of the 258 first-round picks from 1977 to '86 have made it to the majors. "It's so tough to get an accurate reading on a kid in the spring," says Braves general manager Bobby Cox. "Either the weather's lousy, the game's rained out or they walk the guy you're looking at every time he comes up." In addition, Cox thinks that hitters are far more difficult to scout than pitchers because "aluminum bats distort everything."

Perhaps that's why the three biggest success stories from last year are pitchers. The No. 4 pick, Baltimore's Gregg Olson, and the No. 8 choice, California's Jim Abbott, are already big leaguers. The No. 1, righthander Andy Benes, will almost certainly be with the Padres by the end of the year. Through Sunday, Benes was 5-1 with a 0.87 ERA for the Double A Wichita Wranglers.

One reason so many top prospects this year are high schoolers, says Montreal scouting director Gary Hughes, is that "we've done such a good job signing players the last three years." In 1988 the Expos got righthander Reid Cornelius to change his mind about going to Mississippi State by offering him a reported $240,000 signing bonus. And the Braves persuaded lefthander Steve Avery to give up Stanford by making him a $211,000 offer.

One potential draftee this year is USC's Rodney Peete, who plays third base and quarterback for the Trojans. Last June, Peete was offered a large bonus by the Athletics, who would have allowed him to play baseball in the summer and return to USC in September for the football season. But he turned down the deal because he said that he wanted to prepare for his final year of college football.

Another two-sport player is Michigan outfielder-wide receiver Greg McMurtry. He was considered the best pure athlete in the '86 draft and was picked in the first round by the Red Sox. But he turned down the Sox' offer of a $195,000 signing bonus, in order to play football at Michigan. This time around, however, he may not get as sweet a deal. Says one scouting director, "He's gone so far backwards he's hardly a prospect now. He's lost a couple steps in speed, and his swing is completely messed up."

Some teams have a knack for picking winners (chart, page 60). The Mets selected Gooden and Darryl Strawberry early in the first round, and when their top pick in '84 (Abner) bombed, they used him, as part of a multi-player deal, to obtain outfielder Kevin McReynolds from San Diego. Similarly, thanks to three straight strong drafts, the Expos have what is generally considered the best stockpile of young players. Baltimore has not fared so well. You have only to look at the Orioles' abysmal draft record from 1975 to '85 to understand why the team fell apart last year.