A Look Ahead

Which surprise teams will be playing in October?
Of the Tigers, Reds and Blue Jays--the year's most unexpected division title contenders-- Detroit has the best chance of making the playoffs because of its young and talented pitching staff, which at week's end led the majors in ERA even though 38.7% of the team's innings had been logged by hurlers under age 25 (starters Jeremy Bonderman, Zach Miner and Justin Verlander, and setup man Joel Zumaya). The Tigers' start is legit: They had outscored opponents 394-285, by far the largest differential in the majors. As for Cincinnati, its hitters are first in the league in homers and fourth in runs scored, but the club has also been lucky: The Reds were 14-7 in one-run games and had been outscored 377-373 on the season. Toronto is dangerous because it has ace righthander Roy Halladay (9-2, 3.07 ERA) and a high-powered offense (first in the majors in slugging percentage), but assuming the AL wild-card winner comes out of the Central, where the White Sox and the Tigers each were on pace for more than 105 wins, the Blue Jays would have to hurdle the Yankees and the Red Sox, who have finished one-two in the East every year since 1998, to reach the postseason.

Will a manager be fired during the season?
It's been six years since an entire season elapsed without a managerial change. With eight managers in their first years on the job and 17 of 30 teams within five games of a postseason berth, no bench boss appears to be in even serious trouble. But that will change if Charlie Manuel's Phillies (8-14 in June) continue to underachieve.

How many players will hit 50 home runs?
From 2002 through '05 only three players hit 50 home runs in a season; this year--with home runs up 11.7% from last year at the same point--six players ( Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, Jim Thome, Alfonso Soriano, Adam Dunn and Carlos Lee) were on pace to reach 50. Of the six, however, only Thome has cleared that barrier in his career; Howard, Soriano and Lee have yet to reach 40. Despite a 15-day stint on the disabled list, Pujols, who hit his 26th homer last Friday, was still the major league leader; if he stays healthy and sustains his current home run rate, the first baseman will make a serious run at 70. (He was on pace for 67.)

Will the Mets win the NL East by 20 games?
Not since 1999, when the Indians finished 21 1/2 games ahead of the White Sox in the AL Central, has a team won a division by 20 or more games. But the Mets have a chance to do so in the NL East, where their cushion was a seemingly insurmountable 11 1/2 games. And the margin could get wider in a hurry: The Marlins and the Nationals are rebuilding, and the reeling Phillies and Braves could unload prominent veterans in July. Look for New York--which has MVP candidates in centerfielder Carlos Beltran and third baseman David Wright and a red-hot leadoff hitter in shortstop Jose Reyes--to cruise home, especially with 26 of its final 33 games against teams with losing records.

So who's going to the playoffs?
The Red Sox, White Sox, A's and Tigers (wild card) in the AL; the Mets, Cardinals, Dodgers and Astros (wild card) in the NL.