Sharp Picks For Wild-card Weekend

CHIEFS at COLTS, Saturday

It's just too pat to say that you can beat Indianapolis if you keep running the ball. Cincinnati tried it and lost because the Bengals didn't go about it the right way. They relied on quickness, trapping and running outside. That played right into the Colts' hands, because their defense--small, to be sure--is also quick. The teams that hurt Indy have big mushers up front who manhandle the Colts, as Jacksonville did (375 yards on the ground). K.C. is very solid in the middle of its O-line, and the Chiefs have the kind of punishing runner, Larry Johnson, who can give Indianapolis real trouble.

The Colts regained an offensive weapon that was missing in three December losses: Dallas Clark, the "move" tight end, who was out with a knee injury. He plays the slot and can catch the short check-down or kill a zone by sprinting down the seam for serious yardage. K.C. has good bookend pass rushers in rookie Tamba Hali and Jared Allen, but Peyton Manning will be throwing quickly, on rhythm, and completing his share of passes.

Can the Chiefs hang with the Colts? I don't think so, especially if quarterback Trent Green has to bail out the offense. He has looked shaky down the stretch. Colts 31, Chiefs 20

COWBOYS at SEAHAWKS, Saturday

Seattle optimists might say that this will be the week their team pulls its game together, with quarterback Matt Hasselbeck ending his scattershot play and running back Shaun Alexander putting up the big numbers that set the tone for the attack. Fine, it could happen. But what about the defense? It's had the late-season blahs. San Francisco beat the Seahawks twice, averaging 403 yards. Arizona beat them with 27 points and 345 yards, big numbers for that team. Dallas has moved the ball, even on its worst days.

The Cowboys' problems have been turnovers and other forms of erratic play. But here's a weird thing about them: During their recent funky period, they did their best work away from Dallas. In their last two road games, against the Giants and the Falcons, the Cowboys were at the top of their game, winning both. They play better when they leave the Texas Stadium pressure cooker. I think Dallas will pull its defense together and force a few turnovers. If the noise at Qwest Field doesn't get them, the Cowboys will go to a max protect system and give quarterback Tony Romo time to put up enough points to get them their upset. Cowboys 23, Seahawks 20

JETS at PATRIOTS, Sunday

Eric Mangini is not what you'd call a blitz-happy coach. But when his Jets beat New England in Foxborough on Nov. 12, he and defensive coordinator Bob Sutton turned the blitzers loose on Tom Brady. Now, since Mangini is a cerebral type, you know that's exactly what he won't do this time. Brady will see a different look, and I won't be surprised if New England, noting the moderate success that even poor Oakland had on the ground against New York, comes out with two tight ends, wham-blocks inside and pounds the ball on the ground.

I think Jets passer Chad Pennington will see a different look from the game in November as well, but he is locked into a certain type of offense: the quick, rhythm throws that put the onus on his fine set of receivers, including Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery, to make the tough catches and turn small gains into decent ones. I don't think the Pats' rush will give him time for longer throws. The Jets will win if they can control New England's running. The Patriots will win if they have success on the ground to set up Brady's play-action passes--and if they hold New York's receivers to minimal gains. I lean toward the home team. Patriots 17, Jets 13