Dr. Z's Forecast

NFC SAINTS AT BEARS

It's going to be a week of nonstop questions for Rex Grossman--about his inconsistency and his inability to handle the blitz and his fear of getting yanked. The Seahawks' relentless blitzing made him look ragged at times, but Grossman (left) paid them back with long strikes. His 68-yard scoring pass to Bernard Berrian was as beautiful a deep throw as you could imagine, and the 30-yarder to Rashied Davis that set up the winning field goal looked like it was fired from a blowpipe. That has to scare the Saints, because for all the magnificence of their victory over Philadelphia they showed one glaring weakness: vulnerability to the deep strike. Their secondary lacks speed. Give Grossman time and, guaranteed, he'll have one or both cornerbacks in tears. The Saints get a good rush from an active front four, but against the Bears they might send extras to force a turnover or two.

The Saints' attack is beautifully balanced, and the Chicago D is far from being the monster it was earlier in the season. Another thing I don't like about the Bears: their special teams. The kick coverage unit can be had. All-Pro return man Devin Hester muffed it three times when Seattle kicked short and made him field a bouncing ball. I'll go for the underdog. Saints 31, Bears 27.

AFC PATRIOTS AT COLTS

The Colts have done a 180. Once a soft team that relied on the brilliance of their QB, they've won two playoff games with running and defense. Indy stopped the Ravens just as it stopped the Chiefs: Eight men swarm the box on early downs, the DBs strike quickly at passes caught underneath. K.C and Baltimore, figuring the Colts' D (right, Raheem Brock) was small and a bit frail inside, attacked with the running game from heavy formations, the Ravens often using two tight ends plus a fullback. That played into Indy's hands and created a traffic jam.

The Patriots won't do that. They'll run from multiple-wideout sets, giving their runners breathing room, and occasionally use a second tight end for wham-blocking. On defense you can bet New England will have plenty of stunts and blitzes ready for Peyton Manning. Once he was the master of blitz control, but he made bad decisions against the Ravens and awkward, strange-looking throws. Manning got lucky because Baltimore dropped at least three balls that should have been interceptions. I don't think New England will be as kind.

Tom Brady hasn't been a model of consistency, either. He had three picks against the Chargers, four when the Pats lost to the Colts in November. I see a high-turnover game. The team with the fewest will win. New England will have the fewest. Patriots 27, Colts 24.