Dr. Z's Forecast

EVERY GAME NFC East teams play against each other will be a big one. Nobody knows yet who's really good. No one's a mortal lock to win the division, or strictly a long shot. And as much as we hate to fall into that trap of calling a mid-September contest a "crucial," how else would you describe the twin pairings of Washington- Dallas and Giants-Philly this weekend? Look at it this way. The Cowboys dropped both games to Washington last year, but if they had gained a split--and they very easily could have taken the first game, a 14--13 loss--then they, not the Redskins , would have been in the playoffs.

Giants-Eagles is an odd series. In 14 of the last 15 years the team that won the first contest has taken the second one. This year I think the Giants will have Philly's number. Last week the Eagles got an early scare in Houston and then coasted. The Giants had a momentous game against Indy, whipping the Colts in most categories in which he-men are measured: running game, run defense, quarterback pressure and so forth. But Peyton Manning was a magician, getting off his passes at the very last moment, just before he felt the horns of the beast, to lead Indy to a most impressive victory.

The Eagles enjoyed one of the utmost luxuries in NFL football against the Texans: being able to substitute an entire front four at times. Fresh legs can stand firm against a big league running game. They can keep the pass rush going. Philly might be a lot better than we suspect, but I just like the emotion and muscle New York showed against the Colts . The Giants are my pick in an upset.

The second half of the NFC East set matches a pair of quarterbacks with something to prove. Washington 's Mark Brunell had a miserable exhibition season. Drew Bledsoe of Dallas seemed to tire last week as the loss to the Jaguars wore on. I'm not really comfortable with this pick, but I'll stick with the Cowboys , only because the game's in Dallas .

Upset special: Jets at home over New England . The Jets haven't beat the Patriots for the last three years. But there's a new spirit catching on in New York , and, guaranteed, when those victory-starved Jets fans see their offense take the field on Sunday, the roars will be deafening. The Patriots were downplaying the holdout by wideout Deion Branch . The Buffalo game was a chance to make a statement. See, we're just fine without him. Then the entire banged-up wideout corps caught four passes for 51 yards, and Branch was traded.

In other games that figure to be close, the Saints will win on the Packers ' home turf for the first time in 35 years. Carolina gave up the second-most rushing yards in franchise history (252) to Atlanta , but I can't see a Vikings victory. Brad Johnson's no Michael Vick . Panthers to win it. Wait a minute, I've found another upset: San Francisco , with an offense that's coming back to life, will beat St. Louis in a shootout. And in the Monday-nighter, well, Jacksonville 's one of the few teams that's always matched up well physically with Pittsburgh , and if Big Ben isn't back yet.... Aah, the hell with it. With or without him, the Steelers will get their upset on the road.

Last week: 5--3 (not including late Monday game)