Dr. Z's Forecast: Divisional Round

One thing you should know after the first weekend of the playoffs: Coaches who said they were going to establish a running game were either dreaming or lying. Not one of the eight teams in action hit its season average for rushing yards in a game, and there were no 100-yard guys. So, as we head into the divisionals, let's not get carried away with the smashmouth football hype. Unless freak weather conditions abound—or freak statistics, such as multiple turnovers—the teams that throw the ball best are going to win.

AFC

SATURDAY

JAGUARS at PATRIOTS

FIVE OF New England 's defensive starters in the finale against the Giants were 30 or over. Dare I say this unit has looked tired down the stretch? Three of the last half-dozen teams that played the Pats roughed them up. Sure, it could be a lack of urgency that goes with an early clinching, but some of the zip seemed to be gone. Does Jacksonville have enough punch in its attack to take advantage of that?

The book on the Jaguars indicates they'll try to run the ball and make a low-possession battle out of it. If they do they'll be playing into New England 's hands. Too many things can foul up a long, primarily land-based march. But if Jacksonville comes out throwing, rolls quarterback David Garrard to either side, makes the Patriots ' LBs and DBs run and the linemen chase, the Jaguars can wear down New England . Will it happen? Maybe, but I can't see the Pats being kept out of the end zone fewer than four or five times, and I just can't squeeze enough points out of the Jacksonville offense to match the Patriots ' machine. New England 34, Jacksonville 24

SUNDAY

CHARGERS at COLTS

I SEE a blowout here. In November the Colts , with practically their entire receiver corps crippled and Peyton Manning throwing six picks, came within a missed 29-yard field goal of beating the Chargers—in San Diego , no less. Now Indy's healthy and rested. Don't be surprised if weakside LB Freddy Keiaho, who missed the Chargers ' game with an ear infection, has a big day. He's one of the league's quickest and soundest outside pluggers. Marvin Harrison should finally suit up, too. Even before he sprained his knee he was a mid-range, not a long-ball, threat this season. Still, the more weapons you have....

I didn't like what I saw of the Chargers on Sunday. LaDainian Tomlinson looked as if he were on cruise control. I didn't see his usual elusiveness and pop. Philip Rivers was O.K. but could have problems against a faster defense than what he's used to. And that's one thing the Colts can do—turn up the speed defensively. They won't overpower anybody, but they gave up the fewest points in the NFL this season through quick-striking ability. Indianapolis 38, San Diego 17