Intelligence Report

I THINK . . . By Peter King

. . . You need to sift through the malarkey before you draft.

At this time of year you are wondering, Who can I believe? When you look back at your draft at the end of this season, I guarantee that you'll be kicking yourself for believing some coach who said in the middle of training camp, "This is the year that John Doe is going to rush for 17,000 yards and really take over our offense."

The five things I'd advise you NOT to believe:

1. Shaun Alexander thinks he could have one of the best years a running back has ever had. He turns 30 this week. He's coming off a foot injury. I have my doubts.

2. Larry Johnson says he can put up the best numbers of any back. Hmmm. Herman Edwards tells me, "There is no way" he'll run the ball 400 times.

3. I love Trent Green, but I'm skeptical that he can be a 3,500-yard passer--not with a suspect offensive line, and at age 37.

4. Don't think the Baltimore defense is in decline because of age and because it lost Adalius Thomas. It's still a top three D.

5. I keep hearing that the Saints will drop off this year. Well, I wouldn't pick their defense, but Drew Brees is going to be ridiculously good again.

EPSTEIN 'S THEORY ON Drafting Defenses