Dr. Z's Forecast: Watch For Traps

Yes, Miami- Pittsburgh is a stirring kickoff for the 2006 season, and the Colts versus the Giants offers the Manning Family Drama, and the Terrell Owens Show opens in Jacksonville, and all the rest of the carnival. But there are other games that are just as intriguing. This isn't a gambling column, but never have I seen one weekend in which so many traps have been laid for your faithful forecaster and his followers.

By traps I mean games in which the oddsmakers in Vegas are practically begging people to go with certain teams. Three jump out. Philly opened as a three-point favorite at Houston and moved to 31/2 eight minutes later. Honestly, can you see anyone in his or her right mind taking the underdog? As of Monday, the Texans' running back corps consisted of a 2006 sixth-round draft choice, second-year pro Vernand Morency, and Giants and Broncos castoff Ron Dayne. The Eagles, guaranteed, will sweep the handicappers' box in your local paper. Guys in the barbershop will be lining up to pick them. And thus we have a classic trap.

San Diego at Oakland is another one. Is there any reason to take the Raiders and three points? Six, maybe, but three? San Diego has won the last five, only one of them closer than seven points.

Finally the Jets, with problems at running back and wide receiver, are only three-point underdogs in Tennessee, a team with superior talent at most positions. Seven points wouldn't be out of line, but what the oddsmakers are saying is, "Look what we're offering you ... a steal." No one could like the Jets, right?

Except me. I will not be trapped. I see New York's defense forcing turnovers in a sloppy game. I like the Jets. And I won't be trapped into following the line that forms behind the Chargers. Philip Rivers hasn't gotten it done yet, and the Black Hole by the Bay is not a good place to start. The only thing that worries me is the Oakland offensive line's trying to block those superior San Diego rushers, Shawne Merriman and his bunch. I think the Raiders will do it. Oakland is my choice.

My formula has run out where the Texans are involved, and I just don't have the guts to give it another play. Philly is the pick, and this will probably be the one I'll lose big.

My upset special is the Giants over the Colts. Indy's playing a pat hand, with everyone returning on offense except Edgerrin James-but that's a big except. I've seen too many games in which he bailed them out by muscling first downs. Rookie Joseph Addai will be a fine player someday, but I don't think he's ready to carry that load just yet. This season the Giants will reveal just how good their defense can be.

Pittsburgh will throw the blitzers at Daunte Culpepper and challenge his mobility. I think he'll do O.K., but I don't know whether he'll have time to get the ball to Chris Chambers downfield. He'll still do better than Charlie Batch will against the Miami defense. Big Ben Roethlisberger's absence(appendectomy) makes a tough pick easy. Dolphins to win it.

I think Carson Palmer and his Bengals wideouts will put more points on the board than the Chiefs' running game will, so I'll go with Cincy in an upset. And here are a couple more upsets: the Baltimore defense, even though it's not what it once was, to topple Chris Simms and the Bucs in Tampa; Dallas to win at Jacksonville. Oh, and Chicago to beat Green Bay at Lambeau, another dull pick.

Last season: 79-40