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December 18, 2006

Help Wanted (name Your Price)

Flush with cash, teams are lavishing eight-figure salaries on some of the most unlikely free agents (Gil Meche?). Good news for the '07 crop: Binge spending won't be a one-year phenomenon

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Such is the zeal with which major league teams are spending money that they cannot be constrained by the mediocre talent available nor, as Cubs general manager Jim Hendry proved last week, three blocked arteries and an EKG machine. Hendry provided the metaphorical highlight of the off-season when, tethered to a heart-monitoring device while awaiting an angioplasty, he made a cellphone call and closed a four-year, $40 million deal for lefthanded starter Ted Lilly, a seven-year veteran who has yet to throw 200 innings in a season and whose career won-lost record (59--58) and ERA (4.60) are the very definitions of average. Hendry soon felt better. After the angioplasty, of course.

Think House meets Deal or No Deal when it comes to this off-season, as owners happily dole out millions to your average Joe (Borowski, to whom the Indians gave $4.25 million despite a 2006 season in which the journeyman 35-year-old closer blew seven saves). However, at the same time that they generated debate about the mental wellness of front offices throughout the majors, such deals confirmed the extraordinary financial health of the game. "It could have been anticipated--though maybe not quite to this extent," Braves G.M. John Schuerholz says of a six-week stretch in which more than $829 million was lavished upon free agents. "History tells you that every time additional money comes to clubs, it slips right through their hands and into the players'. We're seeing that again."

Said one player agent at last week's winter meetings, "The spending is moving the market so fast that what was unreasonable just two weeks ago is reasonable today."

The market is being driven by record crowds (total attendance is up 8.1 million from 2002), growth in revenues from traditional and new media, revenue sharing and labor stability. Last month owners and players agreed on a second straight collective bargaining agreement without a work stoppage. Says an American League executive, "I was shown the books, and beyond the Internet and XM [satellite radio] money everybody talks about, you wouldn't believe what's coming in and projected from licensing and international business. This [spending] isn't a one-year thing."

Oddly, what's missing from the forces driving spending is one traditional catalyst: star talent. Outside of free-agent outfielder Alfonso Soriano ($136 million, eight years from the Cubs) and lefthander Barry Zito (still unsigned as of Monday), this free-agent class lacks difference-making players. "It's a function of more players getting locked up to longer deals," says Dodgers G.M. Ned Colletti. "You get fewer of those players on the market. There aren't the arbitration guys or five-plus [service years] guys out there like there used to be."

The flow of star talent, though, could be about to accelerate. Among the potential free agents next year are Braves centerfielder Andruw Jones, Blue Jays centerfielder Vernon Wells, Cubs righthander Carlos Zambrano, Mariners outfielder Ichiro Suzuki and Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez, all of whom gained leverage with the market upswing. Toronto, for instance, could explore trades for Wells next month if the recent runup has put a contract extension out of reach. (Only 28, Wells is almost certain to eclipse the deal Soriano, three years his senior, received). Colorado righthander Jason Jennings, another potential '07 free agent, is already available by trade, having told the Rockies he'd be foolish to forfeit free agency by signing an extension.

Halfway through baseball's most extravagant spending season since the winter of 2000--01, here are the most important story lines of the bull market of '06--07.

THE CUBS
The worst team in the National League last season has spent $304 million on new manager Lou Piniella and eight players ( Soriano, Lilly, third baseman Aramis Ramirez, infielder Mark DeRosa, pitchers Jason Marquis, Kerry Wood and Wade Miller and backup catcher Henry Blanco). One NL G.M. speculated that the Tribune Company, which is considering a sale of the club, is looking to give the Cubs additional curb appeal. "The Cubs are a brand with great value even when they lose," says the G.M, "but if you turn them into a winner, the price goes up even higher. They figure if they add $40 million [in payroll], they'll get that back and a lot more if they're selling a playoff team."

Seeing how the six-division playoff format allows for quick on-field turnarounds, the Cubs envision themselves as next year's version of the '06 Tigers. Since the wild card was introduced in 1995, 19 teams--or 20% of all playoff clubs during that span--have made the postseason in the year after a losing season. Says Piniella, "Jim told me when he hired me, 'We're going for it.' He's done it and then some. We have eight starting pitchers under 30. We should contend."

OVERVALUED PITCHERS
Lilly, Marquis (three years, $20 million), Adam Eaton (three years, $24.5 million from the Phillies), Gil Meche (five years, $55 million from the Royals) and Vicente Padilla (three years, $33.8 million from the Rangers) all turned middle-of-the-rotation careers into riches. Meche's contract was not only the longest of those deals, but also the most stunning. The 28-year-old righthander has not thrown 200 innings in a season, and his ERA was worse than the league average in three of the four years in which he made more than 25 starts. Moreover, Kansas City, which also signed closer Octavio Dotel (one year, $4 million plus $2 million in incentives) and was pursuing righthander Miguel Batista, ranked 26th in payroll last season and hasn't made the playoffs since 1985. Spending by such a low-revenue club confirmed not only the widespread health of the sport but it also underscored the success of the players' union in convincing clubs to funnel more revenue-sharing money toward payroll rather than their own pockets.

Midlevel innings-eaters Jeff Suppan and Jeff Weaver remained available, as did Zito, who could command a deal of at least six years and $100 million, surpassing the $16 million average annual value the Dodgers gave Jason Schmidt, 33, for three seasons and the Yankees gave Andy Pettitte, 34, for one year. The Giants, Mets, Astros, Cardinals, Twins, Mariners, Rangers and Blue Jays continue to search for starting pitchers.

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