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March 24, 2008

Big Bang Theory

In a field loaded with tall, talented front lines, at least half a dozen top contenders are smaller teams that have offset their lack of stature with speed and versatility—weapons they hope will cut the behemoths down to size

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The Jayhawks' Self knows exactly what Davis is talking about. Two years ago Self's big men couldn't keep up on the perimeter with another Missouri Valley sniper, Bradley's 6'7" Marcellus Sommerville, whose 21 points (and five three-pointers) helped the Braves upset Kansas . "From a matchup standpoint, you're nervous when your big guys are chasing around a conference player of the year who's a perimeter four man, and that happens a lot in the mid-major conferences," Self says. "Sommerville just killed us because our big guys weren't used to guarding out there quite as much."

Then again, Self can speak with confidence these days: His Jayhawks may own the best combination of size, depth and balance of any team in the tournament. Most other contenders, though, enjoy less flexibility. Where would Georgetown put Hibbert if the Hoyas were to meet Duke ? (In the middle of a zone defense, perhaps?) Would Stanford play both Lopezes at the same time against, say, Texas ? And how would those tiny teams guard the big guys inside? "That's why the NCAA tournament is so great," Self says. "There are so many subtle things that happen through matchups. That is what makes it so much fun."

Will size win the ultimate prize? Check back in three weeks, for no NCAA tournament is better equipped to answer the question than this one.

Tall Order

Twelve Top 25 teams are smaller than any titleist since 1987

To compare the size of teams' front lines, Ken Pomeroy of Basketball Prospectus developed a measure he calls Effective Height. The figures below represent the tallest 40% of a team's minutes played, i.e., an approximation of height at the power forward and center positions, for the teams in the final regular-season Top 25 (in bold) and the national champions going back to 1987.
[This article contains a table. Please see hardcopy of magazine or PDF.]

Stats by Ken Pomeroy of Basketball Prospectus; database by Jed Tai.

On the Front Line

The last three champions relied heavily on post players for points

How much do teams rely on their big men for scoring? Using the teams from the final regular-season Top 25 (in bold) and the national champs since 1987, Ken Pomeroy of Basketball Prospectus calculated the percentage of a team's points that came from the tallest 40% of its minutes played (i.e., the power forward and center positions).
[This article contains a table. Please see hardcopy of magazine or PDF.]

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