Baseball

Closing Costs
April has been the month of the blown save; for several would-be contenders, that could haunt them come September

TREVOR HOFFMAN picked up his 527th save on April 11, extending his own career record, but he was sufficiently shaky in a 7--5 Padres victory over the Dodgers that one was left with an inescapable thought: The superb closer's career may itself soon be coming to a close. "I just hope he's able to end it gracefully," says an American League scout. "I've been fooled before. Maybe he'll come back and save 30 games, but I think something's going to have to change."

Hoffman ranks with the Yankees ' Mariano Rivera and the Mets ' Billy Wagner in that rare group of closers who have thrived for more than a decade. With the exception of the 2003 season, when he missed all but four weeks with a torn rotator cuff, Hoffman has saved at least 37 games every year since 1996; only once during that span was his ERA above 3.00. This season, however, has been different. His four saves in five chances belie a 9.53 ERA, the result of sudden command issues. "Every other pitch is right down the middle," says the scout. "He now has well-below-average stuff."

Hoffman 's Padres are not the only would-be contender with serious closer issues. The Indians ( Joe Borowski ), the Brewers ( Eric Gagn� ) and the Diamondbacks ( Brandon Lyon ) have all had disturbing blowups. Gagn� , who's already surrendered two ninth-inning, game-tying home runs, is still hitting 94 mph, right around where he was topping out last season as an effective closer for Texas . However, his breaking ball, a scout says, has had little snap.

Borowski , who once threw in the mid-90s, has won admirers for having saved 81 games over the last two years despite now throwing in the mid-80s. "Fearless," is the word that Indians general manager Mark Shapiro uses to describe the 36-year-old righthander. Nonetheless, Borowski gave up a walk-off grand slam to the Angels ' Torii Hunter last week.

Lyon , who assumed the closer's role after Arizona traded Jose Valverde to Houston in December, is a sinkerballer who, according to a scout, "does not have closer's stuff." Though Lyon blew two of his first four save chances, Diamondbacks manager Bob Melvin expressed little inclination to make a switch, despite plenty of able replacements; Tony Pena , Chad Qualls and Juan Cruz did not give up a run in the Diamondbacks ' first 11 games.

Bullpens have been more unpredictable than usual from the start in 2008. A record eight save chances were squandered on Opening Day, and through Sunday, 42 more have been blown since, a 35% increase over the first two weeks of 2007. "In general, unless you have Rivera or one of the few guys close to that stature, it's such a volatile role," says Arizona G.M. Josh Byrnes , who belongs to a growing group of G.M.'s who believe that unless you have a dominant ninth-inning option, closers are interchangeable.

Shapiro acknowledges what a crapshoot it is putting together a bullpen, noting that he's put together two good ones and two that were failures. "You won't find a G.M. out there who's great year to year," he says.

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