Surge Policy

IF EVER there's a time for a player to walk the walk, it's right before he's about to walk. Case in point: Rafael Furcal (right). The Dodgers shortstop becomes a free agent after the 2008 season, and if he keeps playing over his head, he figures to cash in. Furcal is hitting .366 and is on pace for 25 homers and 81 RBIs—which would all easily be career bests. It's a fine walk-year performance, but one that suitors should be wary of. Consider these dubious signings.

WAYNE GARLAND
(1976 ORIOLES: 20--7, 2.67 ERA)
THE WALK YEAR: Finished eighth in the Cy Young voting in his first year as a starter.
THE REWARD: Ten years, $2.3 million from the Indians.
THE RESULT: Became the Godfather of Bad Free-Agent Pickups. He narrowly missed losing 20 games in his first season in Cleveland, then had his career cut short by rotator-cuff problems.

MARK DAVIS
(1989 PADRES: 4--3, 1.85, 44 saves)
THE WALK YEAR: Became perhaps the most obscure Cy Young winner ever.
THE REWARD: Four years, $13 million from the Royals.
THE RESULT: Return to oblivion. His ERA ballooned to 5.11 in '90, and he saved just 11 games the rest of his career.

CARL PAVANO
(2004 MARLINS: 18--8, 3.00)
THE WALK YEAR: A righty prospect whose best season had been 12--13, he lopped 1.3 runs off his ERA and was a stud in the postseason.
THE REWARD: Four years, $39.95 million from the Yankees.
THE RESULT: Limited to 19 starts by injuries to his shoulder, buttocks, elbow, back and ribs. "Every time we think we have something solved, something else pops up," then Yankees manager Joe Torre said in '07. "You just sort of shake your head."

JEFFREY HAMMONDS
(2000 ROCKIES: .335, 20 HRs, 106 RBIs)
THE WALK YEAR: The journeyman outfielder hit 60 points higher and drove in 51 more runs than he ever had in a full season.
THE REWARD: Three years, $21.75 million from the Brewers.
THE RESULT: Released in 2003. "It shows you have to be careful with long-term contracts," said Milwaukee G.M. Doug Melvin, about three years too late.

JAVY LOPEZ
(2003 BRAVES: .328, 43 HRs, 109 RBIs)
THE WALK YEAR: Set a major league record for homers by a catcher.
THE REWARD: Three years, $22.5 million from the Orioles.
THE RESULT: Hit just 46 homers in 21/2 years before he was shipped to Boston for a prospect.

SIDNEY PONSON
(2003 ORIOLES-GIANTS: 17--12, 3.75)
THE WALK YEAR: The Aruban became Sir Sidney after Queen Beatrix of the Netherlands knighted him following his career-best season.
THE REWARD: Three years, $22.5 million from the Orioles.
THE RESULT: After two rough years—he spent 11 days in an Aruban jail for assaulting a judge and got two DUIs while sporting an ERA near 6.00— the O's voided his contract, citing the morals clause.