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Habib: Five keys to Astros-Cardinals Game 7
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October 21, 2004

Five keys to Astros-Cardinals Game 7

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1. Clemens Considered a playoff no-show early in his career (3-5 with a 4.32 ERA in his first 14 starts), Roger Clemens has morphed into a stopper. The turning point came in the 2000 ALCS, when he shut out the Mariners on a complete-game one-hitter; since then, he's 7-1, 2.56. Clemens was nails in winning Game 3 of this series, throwing his fastball in the mid-90s and burying his splitter in the high-80s. He got stronger as the game progressed, mowing down the Cardinals for his last five innings of work. With a repeat performance, Clemens can put the Astros in the World Series single-handedly.

2. St. Louis' middle relief Dreadful in Games 1-5, the Cardinals' go-to guys, Ray King, Kiko Calero and Julian Tavarez, threw four shutout innings in Game 6. Manager Tony La Russa loves to mix and match out of his bullpen, and the unavailability of Tavarez and left-hander Steve Kline in Game 5 showed, as closer Jason Isringhausen popped up early, in the eighth, and gave it up to Jeff Kent in the ninth.

3. Isringhausen vs. Lidge Isringhausen just isn't suited to multi-inning appearances. In 13 playoff games before Game 5, he had never recorded more than three outs, and it doesn't bode well that the first two times he was asked to do so, he coughed up a three-run homer and a game-tying base hit in his second inning of work. It's best if he's a strictly ninth-inning option tonight. Brad Lidge, meanwhile, is putting up Mike Marshall-type innings, and he probably can go one inning tonight after tossing three in Game 6. In fact, I'd be surprised if Lidge didn't surface in a tight eighth-inning spot tonight.

4. Womack The Cardinals' second baseman and leadoff hitter left Game 6 after three innings with back spasms. Tony Womack is a game-time decision, but if he's out or less than 100 percent, Hector Luna is his replacement. Luna and his .304 on-base percentage shouldn't bat first. I'd love to see Larry Walker lead off, followed by Albert Pujols, Scott Rolen, Jim Edmonds and Edgar Renteria. How's that for a top five?

5. The Pujols/Beltran mano-a-mano concludes Given their superlative postseasons thus far, it would be silly to believe one of them won't make an enormous difference tonight. Picking between them is like choosing between Mickey Mantle and Joe DiMaggio, but I think Carlos Beltran has a slight edge, because I like his odds against Jeff Suppan better than Albert Pujols' against Clemens. And unlike Pujols, Beltran can use his speed to alter a game.

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