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PROTRADE: Many aces struggling
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June 07, 2007

Market Movers

Mussina, Halladay, King Felix among aces struggling

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With almost a third of the season now in the books, it's the perfect time to sell high on players you think are playing over their heads and buy low on some struggling studs. And in order to identify who's who, we turn to the Sports Stock Market at PROTRADE.com:

Chone Figgins ( Angels, 3B): Following a DL stint after breaking two fingers then a sizeable slump, Figgins has put together a string of good games. In his last six outings he has 13 hits in 23 at-bats while chipping in eight runs and five stolen bases. He has also managed to raise his batting average 88 points over that time. He has also been fairly unlucky as his .250 batting average on balls in play is far too low for a player with his speed and way under his career mark of .327 on BABIP. Look for Figgins to continue to raise his numbers, and as he gets on base more his steal numbers should soar. Buy low on Figgins if you can especially if you need steals and runs.

Matt Morris ( Giants, SP): Morris is the poster boy for selling high. Unfortunately, even with his puzzlingly dominant start he has little value. Morris is posting the lowest strikeout rate of his career (4.24 K/9), which has continued the decline he has seen since 2001 in his strikeout rate. Also, he is walking batters at the second highest rate in his career (3.15 BB/9). These signs, along with the fact that opponents are only batting .265 on balls in play and his 74.2 percent of base runners left on base all point to his numbers getting worse as the season progresses. His ERA should be above 4.00 by the end of the season and with the Giants' sputtering offense, Morris owners will find wins scarce.

Bengie Molina ( Giants, C): Molina was the prize that awaited the final owner to draft a catcher in preseason drafts. Currently in 5 x 5 rotisserie leagues, Molina currently ranked fourth statistically amongst major league catchers. It seems that every veteran starting catcher has one of these years, so don't expect a huge drop in numbers. His .323 batting average is ballooned by a fluky .344 batting average on balls in play considering Molina is one of the major's slowest players. He should be able to keep his average above .300 and likely will stay on the list of top eight catchers.

Brad Lidge ( Astros, RP): After losing his closer job after just one blown save, Lidge seems to have righted the ship. After sporting a 5.78 ERA in April, he was lights out in May to the tune of a 1.10 ERA and 22 strikeouts in 16.1 innings. More impressive is the fact that he only allowed six hits and four walks in those innings. Lidge looks primed for another shot at the closer role and with Dan Wheeler's shaky start to June he could get another shot sooner rather than later, which would heavily increase his value. Do not hesitate to add Lidge -- he is an elite reliever who will contribute to your ratio and strikeout categories.

Jonathan Broxton ( Dodgers, RP): This 22-year-old righthander has hit the ground running this season after a 2005 season that established him as one of baseball's most overpowering setup men. With Takashi Saito nursing a sore hamstring, Broxton will be getting save opportunities. Broxton, like Lidge, is already a valuable middle reliever for fantasy purposes with his strong ratios and high strikeout rate. Keep an eye on Saito's injury as the closer role would increase Broxton's value greatly. For those in keeper leagues, if Broxton is not the Dodgers' closer by the end of 2007, barring injury, he should be their Opening Day closer in 2008.

Bronson Arroyo (Reds, SP): After a breakout 2006, Arroyo has struggled out of the gate in 2007. He is walking batters at the highest rate since 2002, 3.48 batters per nine innings. And his strikeout rate is down more than one batter per game. This does not bode well for him as his 2006 numbers were buoyed by his career-low .279 batting average allowed on balls in play. His lucky BABIP, coupled with his 77.9 percent of base runners left on base have regressed to the mean in 2007. Batters are currently batting .320 on balls in play and only 62.1 percent of base runners are being left on base, which explain his 4.73 ERA. Arroyo is not as bad as he's shown in 2007 but is also not good enough to put forth numbers like he did in 2006 from year to year. Expect the ERA to come down a bit but don't expect it to get under 4.00.

Felix Hernandez (Mariners, SP): Hernandez has pitched poorly since being activated from the disabled list. In 25.2 innings since returning, King Felix has allowed 42 hits and 18 earned runs (6.31 ERA). His velocity has been normal so the reason for this slump is unclear but his inability to get his curveball to miss bats has been a big part of the problem. Unless he is hiding an injury or is still experiencing discomfort in his elbow, Hernandez should see his numbers improve. Currently, hitters are batting .377 on ball in play, which should drop significantly by season's end as his career .314 BABIP is far lower. Hernandez is a good, although risky, buy-low possibility if you need pitching.

Mike Mussina ( Yankees, SP): Mussina, like Hernandez, has struggled since coming off the DL. But, Mussina also struggled prior before landing on the DL. A nagging hamstring injury does not bode well for this 38-year old right hander. The Yankee rotation has been a mess as the team has struggled to start the season. Mussina is striking out batters at the lowest rate of his career (4.24 K/9) although his other statistics are in line. Barring a miraculous turnaround, it looks as though Mussina will fall well short of his strong 2006 campaign. Until he shows some signs of life, he should be glued to your bench.

Roy Halladay ( Blue Jays, SP): Halladay has had a very inconsistent start to the season along with a DL stint for an appendectomy, although that should not have any significant effect on his performance. Batters are currently hitting .324 on balls in play, which is 26 points higher than his career mark. Expect this to decrease, along with Halladay's ratios while as he puts together another Cy Young caliber season.

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