Fantasy Fandom

FANTASY MAILBAG

After last week's question about Brewers keeper teammates ( Ryan Braun and Yovani Gallardo ), I thought I would ask a question about two possible keepers on my team. If it came down to it, which of these two hitters would you protect, Joe Mauer or Justin Morneau ? -- Lee, Texas

This is a little bit more difficult than last week's question.

Mauer was a scintillating performer in 2006, hitting a league-leading .347 with 13 HRs and 84 RBIs. However, as is often the case with catchers, he was hit with the injury bug this year, which has severely limited his production to numbers (.294-5-53-56-7) which almost match his 2005 season (.294-9-55-61-13). This raises the question on whether or not Mauer 's 2006 was a career year, or have the injuries just hampered that sweet swing this year?

With the inherent uncertainty at the position because of the immense physical beating they absorb, protecting any catcher is riskier than protecting a player at any other position (only pitchers can rival their proclivity to be injured). I love Mauer and that smooth, easy swing that produces liners all over the field; and he certainly could challenge for more batting titles in the future. However, I'm starting to wonder about whether or not his body will be able to handle the pounding catchers take. I mean, the guy does stand over 6-foot-5, which is certainly atypical for backstops.

Morneau won the AL MVP last year (.321-34-130), and he was working on a pace to easily outdistance those power numbers this year, entering the All-Star break with 24 HRs and 74 RBIs. However, after a great July (.347-8-28), it's as if he has forgotten how to hit. Over his last 34 games, the slugging first baseman has one HR and just 10 RBIs, leading to a .228 average. Obviously, something is wrong here, perhaps an undisclosed injury; but even with this putrid stretch, Morneau still has 29 HRs and 99 RBIs -- totals that rank third and seventh in the AL. In addition, only Alex Rodriguez , Ryan Howard and Morneau recorded at least 29 HRs and 95 RBIs in 2006 and have also done so this year. Though certainly not as sexy pick, like Mauer , Morneau seems to be the safer pick for 2007 and is the choice for protecting.

I'm in a keeper league in which I can hold onto two guys for next year. I can keep one guy I drafted in rounds 1-5 and one from rounds 6-25, or two guys from rounds 6-25. Who do you think I should hold onto out of Justin Morneau (3), Felix Hernandez (5), Russell Martin (13) and B.J. Upton (19)? I'm leaning towards Martin and Upton . -- Tim, Connecticut

Since I just enumerated my concern about protecting catchers, I bet you can figure out who I will suggest that you don't protect for 2008. Besides the injury concerns listed above, there is the performance issue as well. Martin has produced one of the finest all-around fantasy seasons by a catcher ever (.297-17-81-78-21). In fact, he is one of only two catchers ever to have a season of 15 HRs, 75 RBIs, 75 runs and 20 SBs (the other is Ivan Rodriguez in 1999). Given that historic season, is it even a fair bet that he will repeat that performance again in 2008? I don't think so. Also, Martin has really worn down in the second half with a .279 average and only 6 HRs and 21 RBIs after the All-Star break -- which leads me to think that passing on Martin in this setup is the right call.

I also discussed my theory on protecting pitchers last week, so I will also pass on Hernandez (11-7, 3.96 ERA, 140 K, 1.39 WHIP). In this case, with only two players protected, there is simply no way I would protect any pitcher, save Johan Santana , though I fully anticipate a breakthrough season from King Felix next year. The guy does have a 3.11 K/BB ratio along with a 8.03 K/9 IP mark this season, and he'll only be 21 on Opening Day next year.

I spoke of Morneau above, and I would suggest keeping him here again, even though Russell Martin might be ranked higher by most pundits heading into to 2007. For me, you simply can't stand to protect a guy who may or may not be capable of a repeat season. It's better to protect a guy you know you can count on, even if his peak may not be as high; and following that logic, I would chose Morneau over Martin here.