On the brink

The week of reckoning has arrived. Check out my latest projected bracket below, then click to the next page for a detailed breakdown of 27 teams that head into this final week of the season on the bubble.

Below is a mock NCAA tournament bracket based on results through March 9. For purposes of this bracket, the top remaining seed in each conference tournament was awarded the projected automatic berth.

Beginning Wednesday I will be maintaining a real-time Bubble Watch that will be updated continuously through Selection Sunday. There will be a final projected bracket Sunday morning.

NOTE: NO ATTEMPT WAS MADE TO PREDICT FUTURE RESULTS.

Teams whose bubbles burst (in order of closest to being included): Ohio State , New Mexico , VCU , Temple , St. Joe 's.

The breakdown by conference:

Big East : 9 (G'town, Louisville , ND, UConn, Marquette, Pitt , W. Va, Villanova, Syracuse) Pac-10 : 7 (UCLA, Stanford, USC, Washington St., Arizona , Oregon , ASU) Big 12 : 6 ( Kansas , Texas , K-State , Oklahoma , Baylor, Texas A&M ) SEC : 6 ( Tennessee , Vandy, Miss. St., Kentucky , Arkansas , Ole Miss ) ACC : 4 ( Duke , UNC , Clemson, Miami) Big Ten : 4 ( Wisconsin , Purdue , Indiana , Michigan St.) Missouri Valley: 2 (Drake, Illinois St.) A-10 : 2 (Xavier, UMass ) Mountain West: 2 (BYU, UNLV ) WCC : 2 ( Gonzaga , St. Mary's) 21 one-bid conferences.

For more notes on the bracket, click below.

You're going to hear the word "bubble" several zillion times this week, but not all bubbles are created the same. I've divided 27 viable contenders into four tiers. (Anybody not mentioned is either already a lock or has no shot at an at-large berth.)

Kentucky (18-11, 12-4 SEC ; No. 49 RPI): The 'Cats have more than made up for their early season struggles by finishing 12-4 in the SEC. An early exit in Atlanta should cause only the slightest of scares.