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Handicapping the Sweet 16
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March 27, 2008

Handicapping the Sweet 16

Which team will win it all? SIOC lays down the odds

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The Feast of St. Ovinton J'Anthony, patron saint of busted brackets, falls during the downtime between the first and second weekends of the NCAA tournament -- a designated period of mourning for wages lost, spouses alienated and Cinderellas spurned.

But it's also a time for contemplation and recommitment. And for those of you looking to get back on the wagon with the regionals looming, SIOC has commissioned this evaluation of the 16 clubs still standing and their odds of cutting down the nets in San Antonio . For entertainment purposes only!

Odds: 50-to-1

Overshadowed by sexier mid-major media darlings for practically the entire year, the Hilltoppers have soaked in the spotlight following the opening-round defeats of No. 5 Drake and No. 13 San Diego . Between three senior backcourt starters who get to end their collegiate careers in style and a coach/alumnus who led the WKU to its previous Sweet 16 appearance as a player, there's a lot to like about this story. But while the Sun Belt champs thrive in up-tempo contests, looming opponent UCLA controls game pace as effectively as any team in the country. For the conference elitists among you: WKU is the only remaining team, besides Kansas and Tennessee , which didn't face a team from a power conference on its Sweet 16 run. Their lone victories against BCS schools came against Michigan and Nebraska in December. Happy trails, 'Toppers.

Odds: 40-to-1

All week I've listened to Georgetown fans destroy John Thompson III like the guy couldn't coach a fish to swim. All they had to do is stop one guy and he went for 30. While there's a lot of truth to that, Davidson is hardly a one-dimensional team. Baby-faced assassin Stephen Curry does carry the lion's share of the offensive load, but floor general Jason Richards leads Division I in assists while chipping in 12.9 points nightly. Andrew Lovedale , Boris Meno and Thomas Sander give the Wildcats some stout and capable bodies up front. But here's the rub: Last weekend marked Davidson's first two victories against RPI top 100 opponents after nine straight losses since November 2005. To cut down the nets, they'll need four more in 11 days. I can't imagine anybody -- not even criminally underappreciated Davidson coach Bob McKillop -- expects it to happen.

Odds: 30-to-1

What's a more impressive coaching job: Making No. 1 in the polls and advancing to the Elite Eight during a "payoff" year like 2006 -- or coaching a mercurial assembly of freshmen and sophomores into the Sweet 16 during a rebuilding season? The Wildcats have been up, down and all around during Jay Wright 's seventh year on the Main Line, almost missing the NCAA tournament entirely after dropping nine of their last 16 games going into Selection Sunday. But a come-from-behind upset of No. 5 Clemson and a perfunctory dismissal of No. 13 Siena have pushed the 'Cats into the Sweet 16 for the third time in four years. Villanova has struggled the entire season in defending the perimeter, a deficiency which could doom it Friday against top-seeded Kansas . But even if the Kittens engineer the tournament's signature upset against the Jayhawks , I can't imagine this litter surviving a likely Elite Eight showdown with the nation's premier defensive team: Wisconsin .

Odds: 25-to-1

Almost two full years into the Pullman renaissance, the enigmatic Cougars remain a mystery to East Coast college hoops fans. Washington State 's soporific approach slows down the tempo to a crawl and suffocates opponents on the defensive end. Look no further than opening-weekend victories against Winthrop (held to 11 second-half points) and Notre Dame (limited to a season-low 48 points). The Cougars might seem overmatched in the Sweet 16 against top-overall seed North Carolina -- but so did the similarly deliberate and methodical Hoyas in last year's Elite Eight.

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