It's harder than ever for Woods to win at Augusta National, but he'll wear the green jacket again

AUGUSTA , Ga. -- Jack Nicklaus said it, which is the equivalent of being etched in stone. You don't argue with the best golfer of the 20th century.

After a practice round with Tiger Woods at Augusta in 1996, Nicklaus famously predicted that Woods would win as many Masters as Nicklaus and Arnold Palmer combined. That would be 10, an outlandish figure, or so it seemed at the time.

After Woods won the Masters in 1997, 2001, 2002 and 2005, that prediction no longer seemed outlandish. But now Tiger has failed to win for the third straight year at Augusta , finishing second to the sweet-swinging Trevor Immelman on Sunday. Maybe it's time to reassess Jack's prediction.

Tiger didn't actually say it last week, but the way I read between the lines, his comments seemed to indicate that he thought Jack might have been right about that number if not for the Tiger-proofed -- sorry, lengthened and toughened-up -- Augusta National . In 1997, Woods pointed out, he hit pitching wedge into the par-5 15th hole twice, and no club longer than a 4-iron into the par-5 second green. Par was 68 for the longer hitters, Woods admitted.

Not anymore, not at 7,445 yards. Somewhere, the former Masters Chairman Hootie Johnson is probably grinning or cackling or taking candy away from small children, whatever it is he does in his spare time. The Augusta National changes happened under his watch, and they were ahead of the game's steep technology curve (unlike, say, the United States Golf Association ).

On the surface, the Tiger-proofing appears to have been effective. Tiger won three of the first six Masters he played as a pro. Since Hootie's landscaping reign of terror, Tiger has won only one of the last six. His latest 0-for-3 skid at Augusta matches the longest 0-for in his career here. He was skunked in 1998, '99 and '00.

One small detail undermines this theory -- his last three Masters finishes have been third ('06), second ('07) and second ('08). The truth seems to be a little bit more nuanced: Tiger-proofing has given him less margin for error and made it harder to win the Masters, but just barely. If a couple of more putts fell, he easily could have knocked off Zach Johnson last year or Immelman this year. Woods was a runner-up because of unforced errors, not just Tiger-proofing. Remember his shot into the water at 15 on Sunday a year ago, or the missed short putts at the fifth, 13th and 16th holes on Sunday this year.

But some changes have had a direct impact on Tiger's ability to shoot low numbers at Augusta . The addition of trees and distance to key holes has been a factor. The par-4 seventh used to require a wedge into a tiny green. Then the tee was backed up. At 450 yards, No. 7 is now a long, narrow, thread-the-needle hole that almost forces players to hit driver off the tee, when a 3-iron used to be enough. The driver is unquestionably the least consistent club in Tiger's bag. Putting a premium on accuracy hits him where he's most vulnerable.

The same is true at the par-4 11th, which was backed up to 505 yards and had an entire forest added to the formerly wide-open right side of the fairway. Sixty pines were planted, a bit of overkill, and the club removed a handful for this year's tournament. Still, the 11th is now a mean dogleg with a nasty green guarded by water on the left.

New trees on the par-5 15th mean it's no longer automatic to go for the green in two. Last year Woods ran into tree trouble with his drive at 15, but he was three shots behind Johnson so he gambled. He splashed his second shot into the water and needed an up-and-down to save par.