Mapping the Dream standings

Assuming Shinya Aoki gets past Katsuhiko Nagata (the general consensus) at Dream 4, three of Japan 's top lightweights -- including two who are considered among the best in the world -- will have a chance to walk away with the Dream crown on July 21.

No offense to Nagata , but let's map out the semis as if Aoki did what he's expected to do: Aoki meets Philadelphia 's Eddie Alvarez , and Caol Uno faces sudden rival Tatsuya Kawajiri. Because the tournament champion must win twice in the same night, Alvarez is an interesting case as the American could conceivably defeat a twin bill of Aoki and Kawajiri. Along with his exciting decision over Joachim Hansen late Saturday at Dream 3, Alvarez would extend his record to 16-1 and his ranking from unmentioned to middle of the top 10.

But does the American really have a chance to take the whole thing?

While the bout could easily go the distance, Aoki , unlike Kawajiri, isn't the kind of fighter that enjoys wailing away from the canvas. Athleticism and experience should help Alvarez survive, but against Aoki there's certainly no guarantee he'll stay safe in the fight.

Of the four men remaining (again, sorry to Nagata for looking past him), both Kawajiri or Alvarez appear to be the guys you'd like to stay away from as action heads into the semis. In fact, I'm not too fond of any of the remaining fighters against Kawajiri. Tournaments aside, a one-off bout between, perhaps, the best ground-and-pound fighter in MMA and Alvarez , who relies on quickness and a nice whizzer to stay off his back, just doesn't bode well for the Nagata at this point.

Alvarez has a lot to gain if he can keep up his current pace, particularly with contracts from Dream, EliteXC and Adrenaline already in play. His first post-tourney destination would be on a ProElite-promoted event in September. And that could easily mean a primetime spot on CBS .

(By the way, I put Kawajiri in the finals because I don't believe Uno would have much of a shot if they tangled. Both former Shooto champions at 154 pounds, Uno-Kawajiri is a potentially historic fight in Japan , but beyond that, Uno deserves to be a sizable underdog.)

Uno's surprising win over Mitsuhiro Ishida meant a reprieve from difficult choices for teammates Ishida and Kawajiri. Now "The Crusher" can fight with a clear conscience, as well as a little fire in his belly after seeing Uno win by choke. He'll end up on the bottom and gut out a 15-minute fight, making sure neither side of the brackets has easy entry into the finals of the Dream lightweight grand Prix.

Remaining five in order of likely tournament victory:

1. Tatsuya Kawajiri 2. Shinya Aoki 3. Eddie Alvarez 4. Caol Uno 5. Katsuhiko Nagata