Fantasy football success in 75 steps

The smart fantasy football owner relies on much more than just numbers, match-ups and luck. You have to be a scout, a gambler, a dealmaker, a coach and a lot more. You'll never have full peace of mind, and you will always be working to improve your squad, even when you have the best record in your league. The road to the championship begins on draft day, and you'll have to be ready for anything as your build your ideal squad. Here are my top 75 tips and observations for your 2008 draft, listed in no particular order, because they are all equally important.

1. Be ready for anything, and adjust on the run. No matter how many mock drafts you take part in or look at, you'll never know for sure what will really happen when the actual draft begins. Don't spend too much time projecting who will go where. Just be ready to make the best possible selection every time your pick comes up.

2. Believe in Eli Manning. At some point in the career of many quality quarterbacks, "the light goes on" in their heads and everything comes together. Manning isn't about to revert to past form, after his career took a pivotal turn during the '07 postseason. I don't care what his numbers were from last year or how his regular season played out. He's a new quarterback now, and he's going to be a quality fantasy starter in '08.

3. Think past your first pick. Too many fantasy players spend a lot of time wondering who is going to fall to them or whom they should take in the first round. That's going to be your easiest pick. Be ready just as much for the fourth, ninth and 14th rounds

4. Avoid Larry Johnson until at least the fourth round. The offensive line in Kansas City is nothing compared to what it used to be, and a shaky passing game will mean less drives to finish off with touchdowns and more defensive attention on a consistent basis. He'll have to battle hard for most of his yardage this season.

5. Unless you play in an auction, don't plan on drafting specific players in certain rounds ahead of time. If the guy you wanted in the third round goes off the board before you pick, you'll end up disappointed. If he's still there, consider it a bonus. Focus on groups, or tiers of players at every position, not on individuals.

6. Don't assume anything negative about Adrian Peterson just because of the Minnesota passing game. The air attack was weak in '07, and that didn't prevent him from delivering some incredible performances. It takes more than just sticking "eight in the box" to stop an outstanding running back who plays behind an elite offensive line.

7. Don't waste picks on reserve defense/special teams units, kickers and even tight ends. You're only going to use your backup one time in an ideal scenario, and you can pick that unit or player up from free agency. Use those late picks on sleeper candidates from the "Big Three" skill positions.

8. Opportunity doesn't always equal success. Just because Ronnie Brown is coming off a major injury, and Ricky Williams has obvious issues, don't assume that any Miami running back listed behind those two on the depth chart will break out if given the chance to start. Sure, it's possible, but I won't be wasting even a final-round pick on Jalen Parmele, when I can easily pick him up as a free agent during the season if I need to. I probably won't have to pick him up.

9. All young quarterbacks are not created equal. Among rookies, Joe Flacco isn't ready for prime time if given the chance to start. Matt Ryan could develop much quicker than anyone expects and at least keep defenses honest, which would ensure that Roddy White continues to produce well. Aaron Rodgers still needs more consistent playing time to be respectable, but Trent Edwards is showing some clear signs that he can be a quality player very early in his pro career and will bring some stability to the Buffalo offense.