Unconventional Wisdom: Eight trades that make sense

CC Sabathia, Rich Harden and Joe Blanton have already been dealt in a flurry of early activity, leaving many contenders playing from behind in the race to improve their team by the trade deadline. With three top arms off the market, the list of trade targets, aside from Seattle's Erik Bedard, is hitter-heavy. Then again, the A's have dealt away two of their starting pitchers in the last 10 days, so maybe they'll move a third.

So what's left? A lot of left fielders. It's a bat-heavy market, which is a partial explanation for Billy Beane's moves of late -- he's been leveraging the value of starting pitching at a time of high demand for it.

Here are eight trade targets, six of them hitters, who will be changing locations or are strongly rumored to do so before the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline.

Bedard's failure to be the Mariners' second ace behind Felix Hernandez was a small part of why Seattle has been such a disappointment. On a per-inning basis Bedard has been a great pitcher; he does have in-game and in-season durability issues that keep him from being one of the best in baseball, however, and those issues have frustrated the Mariners, who are in position to make a number of trades over the next two weeks.

The state of Bedard's shoulder is a confounding factor. He's been on the DL with "soreness," hasn't pitched in two weeks and isn't expected to pitch until at least Tuesday, with even that in doubt. Any team acquiring him is assuming considerable risk, as opposed to, say, trading for Joe Blanton, who isn't as good as Bedard but never misses a start. The Yankees, with a healthy appetite for risk and Sidney Ponson and Darrell Rasner in their rotation, would seem ready to take a chance on Bedard. Even discounting Bedard to 12 starts and maybe 75 innings, he'd be expected to allow a 3.75 RA/9, or about 31 runs.

Ponson and Rasner are replacement-level talents, five-inning starters who have allowed five runs per nine innings and who can be expected to be closer to 6 RA/9 going forward. Even if the Yankees get Phil Hughes and Chien-Ming Wang back down the stretch, Bedard would have a positive impact on their run prevention, on the order of 20 runs. That's worth two wins.

Can the Yankees get Bedard? Assuming the Mariners aren't looking for the package they traded away six months ago, yes. With Bedard not eligible for free agency until after 2009, the Yankees could better justify including an Ian Kennedy -- but not Hughes -- in a trade, and they may be ready to give up on Melky Cabrera. The Yankees' top trade chits over the winter have mostly had lousy years, which means a package that would have looked great not long ago isn't as attractive now. Then again, the same can be said of Bedard.

What a difference a few months makes. Bay, who played through a knee injury last year that helped ruin his numbers, has returned to form in 2008. He is one of the best hitters in the league, with a .288/.388/.529 line that puts him fourth in the league in Equivalent Average.

The Pirates don't have to deal him -- he's signed to a great contract that pays him $7.5 million in 2009 -- but their need to focus on long-term rebuilding makes them likely to do so.

Bay's bat would help any contender, and his favorable contract means he's not just a rental, although that value will show up in his price. Bay's defensive performance has slipped dramatically since 2006, a decline that shows up in both his BP numbers and zone-based ones. He cannot move to right field, and a team trading for him would be well-served to have a strong defensive outfield in place. Contenders in the worst shape in left field include the Braves, Mets and Diamondbacks, the latter reduced to playing Conor Jackson, a poor first baseman, in the pasture.