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John Donovan: Key week looming in NL East
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July 21, 2008

Key week looming in NL East

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This could be a season-defining week in the still-undecided National League East. Right now, the Phillies are staggering. The Mets are playing their best ball of the year. The Marlins are sticking around. The Braves, the one-time king of the division, are ... I don't know. What the heck are the Braves doing?

It's hard to get a good read on anyone in the East, the most tightly contested division in baseball. The week ahead, in which each of the four contenders have key intradivision series, may finally offer some much-needed clarity.

Here's a shorthand look at the good and the bad for each of the four teams:

They have hitting studs in Chase Utley, Pat Burrell, Ryan Howard (when he hits the ball, anyway) and reigning NL MVP Jimmy Rollins. They have lights-out pitchers in guys like lefty Cole Hamels and closer Brad Lidge, and better-than-average arms in ageless Jamie Moyer, new pickup Joe Blanton and relievers J.C. Romero, Ryan Madson and Chad Durbin. Only the Cubs score more runs a game. And the Phils are fourth in runs allowed per game. They're the only team in the East with a winning record on the road.

BUT ... in the last six weeks, they're just 14-20. They've seen a 3 1/2 game lead evaporate. Since June 8, their hitters are getting on base at a miserable .319 clip. Right fielder Geoff Jenkins, in his first season in Philly, is hitting a miserable .127 in 26 games in that stretch.

Fourth in runs a game and in runs allowed a game, the Mets have worked through their early season misadventures into a tie with the Phillies atop the division. Just 34-35 under fired manager Willie Randolph, the Mets are 19-11 under new skipper Jerry Manuel, and have won 11 of their last 13. Every hitter that's supposed to be hitting is -- Jose Reyes is batting .325 with a .388 OBP under Manuel -- and their pitching staff has proven just good enough to get them back in the race.

BUT ... Johan Santana, as good as he's been (3.10 ERA), hasn't been as dominant as many assumed he'd be. Pedro Martinez (3-2, 6.25) has been awful in his return from injury. The rest of the rotation is barely average. And the bullpen, with a 3.85 ERA, is better only than the Nationals in the East.

With the best record against the East of any team in the division (21-15) and the only winning record in one-run games in the East (15-12), the Marlins enter the week only a half-game behind co-leaders Philly and New York. An offense that scores 4.86 runs a game, third in the NL, paces the Marlins. That's mainly All-Stars Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla, though third baseman Jorge Cantu (.291, 18 homers) is vastly underappreciated.

BUT ... Ricky Nolasco and Scott Olsen are nice enough pitchers, but they're hardly ace material. Injuries (to Andrew Miller, Anibal Sanchez and Burke Badenhop, for three) have decimated a staff that allows 5.11 runs a game. Only the Rockies and Pirates give up more. And those 21 wins against the East? Ten have come against the Nationals.

Third baseman Chipper Jones and catcher Brian McCann are having years befitting their All-Star selections, and Mark Teixeira is coming on (.329, nine homers and 21 RBIs in his last 22 games). The revamped pitching staff hasn't missed much with John Smoltz and Tom Glavine on the shelf. With Tim Hudson and Jair Jurrjens leading the way, Braves pitchers give up only 4.2 runs a game, third in the league. The bullpen has been a revolving door, but it works most of the time.

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